This is a topic that is indeed worthy of greater attention as it contains the true secrets of growth through innovation. There are a couple of really core works here I would recommend for review if you haven't yet read these. One is by the original "godfather" of the S curve, Everett M> Rodgers book, Diffusion of Innovations, first published in 1995. It is considered the seminal work in this space, and a must read for anyone interested in this topic. Many of the concepts presented were popularized by Geoffrey Moore's book "Crossing the Chasm", another mandatory read (in my opinion). A lot of this early work is just now becoming mainstream content in marketing texts.
Over the course of the last couple of decades, the rapid changes observed in the tech industry have validated many aspects of these models, as well as mathematical models such as Fisher-Pry, which can be used to estimate market size and growth rates. One of the general rule of thumb this model suggest is the time it takes to get to 1% market penetration is equal to the time it takes to get to 10%, which is then equal to the time it takes to get to 50%. In other words, if it take 3 years to get to 1% penetration, it will take another 3 years to get to 10%, (6 years total to reach 10%), and then another 6 years to get to 50%. (12 years total). This timing and pass has a lot of influence on things such as true innovator, and fast follower strategies, and market entry timing.
Dan Lewis
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Daniel E. Lewis PhD, PE, PMP, NPDP
President - Product Acuity Consulting
www.productacuity.comThe Woodlands, Texas
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Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2019 20:15
From: Allan Anderson
Subject: PDMA Body of Knowledge and Top Life Cycle Management Tools
Brian and Karen, great basis for a more in-depth discussion. We are currently updating PDMA's Body of Knowledge and one specific chapter that is receiving significant attention is the Product Life Cycle. Version 1 of the BoK provided a fairly light treatment of management throughout the life cycle. I would really like to see more discussion on this topic to enrich our new version of the BoK. Anyone with any suggestions or experience please "chip in".
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Allan Anderson
Emeritus Professor of Product Development
Massey University
Palmerston North
New Zealand
Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2019 12:26
From: Brian Martin
Subject: PDMA Body of Knowledge and Top Life Cycle Management Tools
Karen,
It's an interesting question and one I have often faced - in particular, when is a new emerging and often hyped technology going to supplant an existing one, and therefore how to manage an existing product in the mature stage of the product lifecycle? Is it better to continue to enhance and develop the existing one, or urgently plan for its replacement? The substitution timeline has significant implications, depending on whether the timeline is one, five or ten years and often the rate of substitution is talked up by evangelists for the new technology.
One framework I have found useful is from Adner and Kapoor (2016), who propose a framework for analysing the pace of technology adoption and substitution. They argue that new technology invariably needs an ecosystem to develop to achieve mass adoption, and the challenge for the emergence of the new ecosystem vs. the opportunity to usefully extend the old ecosystem determines the rate of substitution. So whatever space you are in, you can map this out and it leads to a position on the likely rate of substitution, informing your lifecycle management decisions.
Here's a link to their HBR article from 2016: https://hbr.org/2016/11/right-tech-wrong-time
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Brian Martin
Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2019 08:13
From: Karen Dworaczyk
Subject: PDMA Body of Knowledge and Top Life Cycle Management Tools
"Life Cycle Management ensures that the ongoing value of the product is maximized in terms of its evolutionary improvement and long term sustainability." ~ PDMA BoK Guidebook to Training and Certification, First Edition
What are the most useful life cycle management tools used in product management and development and how have they evolved in a market place where life cycles are increasingly shorter for many industries?
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Karen Dworaczyk
VP Marketing PDMA Product Development and Manageme
INSIGHTOVATION�
Canandaigua NY
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